PVI vs. Vote Index: Only the Meaty Votes

15 thoughts on “PVI vs. Vote Index: Only the Meaty Votes”

1. is that there were 2 reasons for voting against it. I think only two voted against it for the wrong reason from solidly Democratic districts (D + 10 or better), Lipinski and A. Davis.  

2. OK, if you’re going to use a number of votes (whether it’s 6 or some other number of votes) you get into scaling issues.  Are all 6 equally important?  Well, there have been various ways of answering this question.  Most depend on giving some items more weight. If you want to get fancy, there is the whole field of item response theory . Or you could just weight by the inverse of proportion of the party voting in favor (you tried to get at this by looking at votes where party discipline broke down).  So, you would get a lot of credit for being alone in the right, and very little for being one of 200 Dems voting a certain way (or, for Repubs, substitute wrong for right)

   Then there’s the question of whether there is one scale or multiple scales.  That can be answered with factor analysis .  National Journal, for instance, includes 3 factors (economics, social, and foreign) then adds them.

   Finally, there’s the continuum vs. categorical question.  That is, should people get scores that have a great many levels (like National Journal’s) or only a few (as a count of a few votes would do).  

   It’s fascinating stuff.  I got my PhD in this kind of thing.

3. Even though certain districts like Artus Davis’ district has a high D PVI, maybe the type of Dem voters in his district tend to be more moderate or conservative?  Of course, I’m speaking in terms of relativity to other Dem districts that maybe more progressive- say New England.

   I’m not defending his voting record, but I thought I’d throw that out there as a possible reason of many as to why he may buck the trend along with others?

4. Poor Ciro Rodriguez (now TX-23, PVI R+4, and now listed as voting wrong on Iraq and FISA). Ciro voted against the Authorization for the Use of Military Force back when that took courage. For that sin Tom DeLay redrew his district lines so he’d be knocked him off in the primary by Henry Cuellar (TX-28, since redrawn again to PVI R+1, and, of course, Cuellar is also listed as voting wrong on Iraq and FISA).

   Now Ciro has returned to the House, after doing us the service of defeating the highest ranking Mexican-American Repub office-holder in the country. Despite being right on Iraq at the start, he’s voting scared now, and I don’t blame him. He’s the best we could possibly get in that district, but he needs another term or two to get settled in.

   But Ciro’s not alone in his votes on Iraq. Note that all the Hispanic Texas Democrats vote together, and wrong we’d say, on the Iraq War.

   They come from such heavily Democratic districts as El Paso (Sylvestre Reyes, TX-16, PVI D+9) and San Antonio (Charlie Gonzales, TX-20, PVI D+8).

   Another way to describe those districts might be Fort Bliss (the desert warfare training base) and “Military City USA” with Fort Sam Houston/Randolph AFB/ Lackland AFB/Brooks City-Base. And indeed, Ciro’s district stretches from South Side San Antonio into El Paso County, hundreds of miles to the west, and includes Laughlin AFB in Del Rio.

   And there’s Solomon Ortiz, TX-27, PVI R+1. Look at his district as described in the Corpus Christi Caller-Times:
   

   “I’ll bet we would have to close,” she said.
   
     That’s what many business representatives who rely on the [naval] bases in Corpus Christi, Kingsville and Ingleside think. Without the more than 23,000 military and government workers living in the area, they fear they couldn’t exist.

   Perhaps due to peer pressure, or feelings of solidarity, they are joined by Reuben Hinojosa, TX-15, PVI D+3, and the Anglo Dems Chet Edwards, TX-17, Nick Lampson, TX-22, and Gene Green, TX-29, PVI D+8 (a heavily Hispanic district.)

   The Iraq and “national security” votes are more emotionally loaded in districts with major military bases, and among Hispanic population which is heavily represented in the Army. We should consider this mitigating factor before putting our target lists in ink.

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